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中国风险投资网 > 风险投资知识 > 中国加息分析:国内要跌国外涨

中国加息分析:国内要跌国外涨

2011年01月10日 03:18

 就在全世界打算安安稳稳的一觉睡到2011年的空档,随着周五(中国)三月期国债的下跌,中国又再一次引起了(全球)的兴趣。中国人民银行意外的上调了存贷款利率0.25%,这是人行既10月19日后的第二次加息,(10月份的加息)是3年内的首次加息。

And by all accounts the PBoC is not done: consensus is for three 25 bps moves by the end of 2011: that the PBoC is starting early may be an indication that the country is starting to seriously worry about its soft landing prospects. Yet one thing that is certain is this move cements the CNYUSD peg: despite all the rhetoric, China will keep the currency peg come hell or high water, as it eliminates any monetary trump card Bernanke may have (just as Germany loves being part of the EUR which has such insolvent countries as all PIIGS members backing up the rear).

   坊间一致认为,如果人行的所有账目都未发生变化的话,在2011年底前还会有3次0.25%的加息,人行提早开始(加息)也许是一个讯息,即该国开始对 其软着陆的前景异常担忧。那么唯一确定的事就是这次加息使人民币钉住美元的现状得到巩固。尽管中国巧舌如簧,但他们无论如何都将保持这一固定汇率,这招化 解了伯南克所有能出的货币王牌,(就好比德国很喜欢呆在欧元区里,而那里到处是类似欧猪四国一样的正接受救援的破产国家【意指德国同中国一样需要贸易体系 内的国家来为其提供巨大的贸易顺差-注】)。

What is unclear is whether the PBoC has now decided to avoid the RRR hike path as the preferred approach to combating inflation. It is assumed that his action will have a soothing impact on the Chinese 7 and 30 Day Repo rates come Monday, as else more failed bond auctions are certain to be in store for Shanghai in 2011.

  有一点尚不明晰,即人行目前是否避免将上调存款准备金率作为对抗通胀的首选方法。估计人行的这一举动对周一的中国7天和30天的回购利率影响不大,而更有可能(使)上海金融市场2011年期国债下跌。

From the just released PBoC statement:

  刚刚发布的人行声明如下:

The People's Bank of China, starting December 26, 2010 has raised the financial institutions' benchmark deposit and lending rates. The one-year deposit and lending rates by 0.25 percentage points, respectively, other deposit and lending interest rate adjusted accordingly (see table). - Full release link.

        “中国人民银行决定,自2010年12月26日起上调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率。金融机构一年期存款基准利率分别上调0.25个百分点,其他各档次存贷款基准利率据此相应调整”。

And the biggest irony is that as China turns off the liquidity spigot, and the hot money follows the path of least resistance in a world of connected liquidity vessels, we expect that commodity prices in the US will jump that much higher, as the speculators slowly abandon the SHCOMP and related exchanges and bring their full sound and fury on fertile for manipulation US soil.

  而最讽刺的是,在中国关掉流动性的水龙头后,热钱当然会遵循国际间资本的最短流动路径,我们预计美国商品价格将涨的更高,而投机客们会逐渐放弃上证综指及相关交易,转而带着他们的喧嚣和十足的狂热来掌控美国股市。

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